I began a string in the gathering about สล็อตเว็บเดียวจบ slot999 a hand I played at a poker club in Portland. The string began a ton of conversation with contrasting perspectives, and I needed to grow a piece on what I did and why I made it happen. This is the sort of investigation you ought to do all alone too, and in the event that you’ve never done this sort of math, this post might appear to be a piece progressed. In any case, dread not, we’ll get past this together and be better for it!
So, here is the hand:
Legend (SB): $250. I’ve been extremely close for the last hour since the table has been quite free, and I’ve been getting zero hands/spots.
BB: $100. Only reloaded for his third $100 subsequent to regurgitating off $100 preflop the last two hands in succession. He’s noticeably shifting.
UTG: $300. Thinking player who necessities individuals to know he’s a savvy fellow.
MP1: $800. Running like God, supposedly could do without to bet and took more time than he ought to need to stack off AQ preflop against the BB in the past hand. Doesn’t appear to be interesting.
UTG limps, MP1 limps, folds to me in the SB with A♠ 7♠
I complete and the tilty BB rapidly makes it $20.
In the real hand the activity collapsed back to me, and when I represented that activity, numerous banners said they would overlay. Since I’m a gigantic geek and I love explorative work, we should examine this hand and see which activity would be ideal. At the point when it folds to me I have 3 choices: overlap, call, or re-raise.
In this spot calling would be horrible. It would avoid us with regards to position in an under 2 little SPR pot with a horrible hand. So we can consequently dispose of that choice. What’s more, any re-raise is basically a push. Regardless of whether we re-raised to $50, assuming he pushes we are getting 3:1 and unquestionably have sufficient value to call. Considering that, our choices are simply among collapsing and pushing. Furthermore, on the off chance that pushing is +EV, we push… assuming pushing is – EV, we overlay. Adequately simple.
You might be thinking about how we address for pushing here. To do that we simply need some significant poker devices like Equilab, an overlap value number cruncher, and assuming that you truly like nerding out, a bookkeeping sheet to accomplish the work in. We should begin by building an EV condition so we can make a structure, then, at that point, we’ll run the EV with different suspicions and perceive how a push here would perform. On the off chance that you’ve never set up an EV condition, I recommend first watching this video which shows the cycle:
In the event that we push there are three potential results:
We push and he creases
We push, he calls, and we win
We push, he calls, and we lose
That is adequately simple, correct? At the point when we push (and once more, any 4bet is a successful push given the stack profundity) and he creases, we get $26 dollars uncontested (his $20 raise + 2 limps + our finish, which no longer has a place with us in this situation). At the point when we push and win, we win his $100 + 2 limps + our finish for a sum of $106. Also, when we push and lose, we lose $98 since that is the all out chance of our push (recollecting again that our $2 fruition doesn’t have a place with us any longer).
Presently we can simply connect a few rates and go to work. In the first place, what sort of value could we have assuming that we stuck and he called? We should initially expect he would call with a scope of 99+/AQ+, a sensible reach for him to raise to $20 and call with. Assuming we plug that into Equilab we have 30% value.
versus a reach
The last number we really want to gauge is the manner by which frequently he would overlay after we 4bet. We should expect he could never overlap, which innately implies the reach he would raise to $20 with is solely 99+/AQ+ (I don’t think this is valid, however hold on for me briefly). So when we plug every one of the numbers in we see this:
EV screen capture 1
With those suppositions this would be a horrible jam, losing us about $37 each time we make it. However, suppose the reach he would raise to $20 with is a lot more extensive than simply 99+/AQ+, and subsequently we can anticipate some level of folds from him. How about we expect to be that 99+/AQ+ just makes up 25% of his raising reach, and that implies we could expect folds from him 75% of the time. Assuming that is the case we notice our EV hops up significantly:
EV screen capture 2
However, this ought to be self-evident. The more frequently we can get the $26 uncontested, the endlessly better our push will be. Yet, things can likewise get better when our value increments when he calls our jam. For example, say he would raise to $20 and call our jam with 77+/AT+/KQ. Presently our value bounces up to 35%. In the event that we accept he raise/folds 60% of the time our push nets us about $5.
EV screen capture 3
More or less, assuming that our value goes up, our EV goes up. On the off chance that he overlap more preflop, our EV goes up. On the off chance that he overlap more AND our value builds, our EV goes Far up. For example, in this present circumstance I really thought he’d shift call with a lot more extensive scope of hands. In a typical circumstance I could never expect a player to call this wide, however I sensibly thought he’d call with all matches, numerous Broadway combos and a few fit connectors. No, a decent player could never do this. However, a terrible player who’s on slant? Furthermore, one who is by all accounts determined to perceive how much cash he can consume in a circle appears to be a great possibility to push a reach where I have 44% of value. Furthermore, on the off chance that he raise/folds half of the time I’m making a +$9 push here:
EV screen capture 4
The other huge thing to consider is how frequently would he say he is raising to $20 preflop? The past reach I doled out, the one that gave me an astounding 44% value, was really 19% of hands preflop (hand-made, not simply hauling the bar to 19% of hands).
19% of hands
What we can do is plug the numbers into a crease value mini-computer to sort out how wide he entirely to be opening at the very least. So we should connect everything genuine speedy:
We notice that we really want him to crease 24% of the ideal opportunity for this to be a breakeven push, given the boundaries we’ve set. In the event that he overlays considerably more than 24% of the time, this is +EV, and assuming he creases under 24% of the time, this will be a terrible push. Be that as it may, what does this 24% number really mean? I’m so happy you inquired!
I accepted he’d raise/call with 19% of hands. Yet, we really want a few folds for this to be productive. So we can take 19% and partition it by 76% (100 percent short the 24% given above), then, at that point, increase it by 100 to find the breakeven number of hands he should be raising to $20 with:
(19%/76%) * 100 = 25%
This implies assuming that we believe he’s raising to $20 with precisely 25% of hands, and calling with 19% of complete hands, this jam is breakeven. But since he’s shifting, isn’t it sensible to expect that he’s probably raising to $20 with A lot more extensive territory and in this manner he’s ready to raise/overlap more regularly? Or on the other hand, on the off chance that he raises to $20 truly wide and really calls the jam more extensive (on the grounds that he’s shifting obviously), then our value goes up and the push turns out to be far superior. It’s a mutual benefit!
Presently, there are a couple of provisos here. In the first place, this is all work we do away from the table. Investigating breakeven focuses, sorting out our EV, figuring out our value, and so on. Second, the a greater amount of this work you do away from the table, the simpler it is to eyeball it accurately progressively. Third, this is what is happening since I expected his initial reach was way wide. This either implied I could expect a ton of folds from him OR I could expect an enormous value hop with less creases. One way or another I anticipated that this should be +EV. Be that as it may, with various suspicions this push could go from +EV to super – EV instantly. It was my off-table investigations that permitted me to appraise this spot progressively accurately.
In the end he wound up snap-calling me with QJo, and I some way or another held. Yet, the outcome isn’t close to as significant as understanding the work that goes into picking a +EV line at the table. Presently go investigate one of your own hands and check whether you might have made a cool push and revealed some great EV!